Pending real estate sales bode well for area

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Pending real-estate sales for Jackson County show Southern Oregon pulling itself out of its housing slump.Photo from 123RF.com

October 27, 2009

By Greg Stiles

Mail Tribune

The table has been set for a strong finish to the real estate sales year in Jackson County.

Buyers have snapped up foreclosures and short sales like hors d'oeuvres and appetizers and local industry leaders hope they will find the main course will be just as desirable.

The latest figures compiled by Southern Oregon Multiple Listing Service show 233 pending sales — 44.7 percent more than a year ago. New listings, meanwhile, have declined, helping to reduce the bloated inventory that accumulated after the housing bubble burst four years ago.

"Pending sales are really up, and from our perspective that's a good indication of where the real estate market is headed," said Steve Blanton, chief executive officer for the SOMLS and Rogue Valley Association of Realtors.

There were 161 pending sales a year ago. All but one region charted by SOMLS saw more pending sales in a comparable period, ending Sept. 30. Eagle Point and west Medford both saw large gains both in raw numbers and percentages.

The inventory of single-family residences ranged well above the 3,000 mark heading into the fall of 2007. Now there are just slightly more than 2,000 houses on the market.

"We're definitely on a downward trend in terms of inventory," Blanton said. "A year ago, the inventory supply was 14 months (based on the pace of sales compared with the number of available units) and this time around we're at nine months. Six months is the tipping point when the market is considered fair between the buyer and seller. This is as close as we've been for a while."

Blanton says the three-fold confluence of the $8,000 first-time home-buyer tax credit, falling prices and low interest rates have stoked the market.

The tax credit provision is due to expire Nov. 30, but the real-estate and home-builder lobbies are pushing Congress for an extension.

"We won't know until it happens," Blanton said. "Obviously, there are a lot of people trying to get in under the wire and that's certainly understandable. It's a pretty fair conclusion that the tax credit has had the desired effect and stimulated the market. I know we're trying to get it extended, because when you look around, the numbers are the same nationally."

The length of time between striking a deal and closing a sale is between 30 and 45 days, sometimes longer.

"During a normal market, you see closings in a 30-day time frame," Blanton said. "Foreclosures and short sales take longer and lenders are really doing their homework to make reasonable decisions. The days of a banker asking how much money you make and then telling you how much you are good for are gone. They're doing their homework and are being very conscientious about who is well-qualified."

Houses are selling about 30 percent faster than a year ago; the average number of days on the market fell from 118 — about four months — to 82 days.

Blanton said there are 825 licensed agents working the market, down more than 300 from the height of the market.

"We are getting new agents coming in," he said. "We don't have a flood, but it's encouraging to see people still want to get into the industry."

Reach reporter Greg Stiles at 776-4463 or e-mail business@mailtribune.com.

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