How do you spell recession?

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When the state economist, Tom Potiowsky, announced last week that Oregon's recession likely is over, it was difficult to resist rolling one's eyes in disbelief. Surely many readers failed in that effort, or ruined their morning paper by spewing coffee all over the front page.

From an economist's unemotional, coldly calculating perspective, Potiowsky could well be right. But we're willing to bet what's left of our 401(k)s that few Oregonians see much reason to celebrate.

Look up the definition of "recession" and you'll find a wide range of measurements. The official, government-sanctioned version looks at growth or the lack of it in the Gross Domestic Product. At least two consecutive quarters — six months — of negative growth must be recorded before the economy is officially in recession.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, the government agency responsible for declaring a recession, uses a somewhat squishier definition: a "significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months."

"Economic activity" encompasses many things, of course. Retail sales, inventory levels, corporate profits, stock values, real estate sales and construction and, of course, unemployment figures.

When economists see those numbers increase rather than decline, they tell us the recession is over.

Sales? Up, for the third quarter of 2009 — helped along, in large part, by the "cash for clunkers" subsidy that prompted thousands of Americans to buy new cars they otherwise wouldn't have.

The real estate market? Up as well. Sales are up and prices are beginning to rise as well — partly because interest rates remain infinitesimal, but also because of federal subsidies for first-time home buyers.

Corporate profits? Up 11 percent in the third quarter, according to Tuesday's Commerce Department report. Also up: productivity, by 9.5 percent. That means those Americans who still have jobs are working even harder than before to make up the slack left by their laid-off colleagues.

And that's why ordinary Americans — the ones who rely on a steady paycheck — aren't likely to believe the economists when they announce that the recession is over. Because regardless of what the economists say, the statistic that is most meaningful to ordinary folks is jobs. Oregon unemployment didn't increase in October, for a change. But it didn't decrease either, and Jackson County's jobless rate inched up once more.

Nationally, economists predict unemployment will stay above 10 percent through the first half of 2010.

Until that statistic begins to change in a meaningful way, don't try to tell most Americans that happy times are here again.

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