LONDON — Governments should invest trillions of dollars to head off a potential global energy shortage amid an anticipated 53 percent rise in fuel needs over the next quarter century, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.
The agency forecast that daily demand for oil alone will rise 38 percent by 2030 as energy demand climbs, particularly in emerging economies such as India and China. The IEA also said China is expected to overtake the United States as the world's biggest emitter of carbon dioxide before 2010.
"On current trends, we are on course for a dirty, expensive and unsustainable energy future," IEA Executive Director Claude Mandil said at the launch of the Paris-based agency's 2006 World Energy Outlook in London. "In response, urgent government action is required. The key word is urgent."
The IEA said governments will need to spend a combined $20 trillion on power, oil and gas production and related facilities as global energy needs are forecast to increase 53 percent by 2030.
More than 70 percent of that increasing demand will come from developing countries, led by China and India, the IEA said.
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"These trends would accentuate consuming countries' vulnerability to a severe supply disruption and resulting price shock," the report said. "They would also amplify the magnitude of global climate change."
Mandil said governments must promote both energy investment and energy efficiency.
He said if countries implement more environment-friendly policies, energy demand and carbon-dioxide emissions would be significantly lower, with overall global energy demand expanding 10 percent less than the business-as-usual scenario.
Mandil said new policies to conserve energy would also make economic sense.
"The additional upfront costs are outweighed by savings later on," he said.
The IEA, established during the oil crisis of 1973-1974, is an energy policy adviser for its 26 member countries, including the United States, Canada, Australia, 19 European nations including Germany and Britain.
It coordinates measures in times of oil supply emergencies and makes policy recommendations on issues such as climate change, market reform and energy technology.
The agency revised its forecast for oil prices upward on the expectation that crude oil and refined product markets remain tight.
"Market fundamentals point to a modest easing of prices as new capacity comes on stream and demand growth slows," the report said. "But new geopolitical tensions or, worse, a major supply disruption could drive prices even higher."
The IEA said it expects the average crude import price to fall back to $47 a barrel in real terms in the early part of the next decade, but then rise steadily through 2030.
Crude oil is currently trading around $60 a barrel — it hit a summertime high above $78 a barrel.
The IEA also said that consumers can conserve energy on a global scale by paying slightly more for more goods, including cars and refrigerators, that are more fuel efficient. It said additional spending of just $1 on more fuel-efficient goods equated to $2.20 saved on the supply side, reducing the need for power plants and networks.
However, Mandil said even the measures advocated by the agency were not enough to ensure long-term energy sustainability beyond 2030.
"For a totally sustainable energy system, technology breakthroughs will also be needed," he said.
Those would include second-generation measures, such as biofuels and advanced nuclear, he added.
The report said that biofuels could make a significant contribution to meeting future road transport energy needs, helping to promote energy diversity and reduce emissions.
