SALEM — An expert says Oregon is in for a long, "shallow" recession but recovery should begin by the second half of 2009.

In his new quarterly forecast, State Economist Tom Potiowsky predicts the slowdown will mean a decrease of $120 million in state general fund revenue, or a drop of 1 percent from his previous forecast.

Potiowsky calls it a relatively small decrease. And state lawmakers said Thursday that state tax collections are still high enough that the state won't have to make cuts in school spending or other state services next year.

Potiowsky says Oregon's recession isn't as severe as in states hit harder by home foreclosures, declining home values and higher energy costs.

— The Associated Press